A search for the new methods for the assessment of the impact of a complex of internal and external factors on health in order to develop primary prevention tools is one of the topical tasks in the sphere of public health.

Objective: We created a model of health risk for urban adolescents, engaged in sports/dance in the organized groups, based on the study of endo- and exogenous factors using Bayes theorem.

Materials and methods: The model was developed taking into account anthropometric, behavioural, social, and demographic determinants identified in urban children aged 12-15 years in 2017 (n = 54) and 2018 (n = 60) with a help of information theory methods.

Results: A model for the assessment of the health risk for urban adolescents, going in for sports, was developed on the basis of Bayes theorem. Negative factors, affecting adolescent health, are as follows: excess and insufficient body weight (p <0.05), the presence of chronic diseases (p <0.05), sleep less than 9 hours a day (p <0.05), age over 14.5 years (p <0, 05), children, going in for sports more and less 3-4 times a week (p <0.01) and with a duration less than 270 minutes a week for boys and 230 minutes a week for girls (p <0.05), low family income (p <0.05),absence of joined motor activity of parents with children (p <0.05), absence of motor activity in parents (p <0.05).

Conclusions: A screening tool determines the risk of children’s health deterioration taking into account the anthropometric, behavioural, social, and demographic determinants with sensitivity of 92.9%, specificity of 85.7%, positive predictive value of 86.7%, negative predictive wave of 92.3 %. The test analytical accuracy is 89.3%.

health, adolescents, individual risk, motor activity, body mass index, sensitivity of diagnostic tests

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